Every Idea Can’t Be a Good Idea (transcription)

April 5, 2013  

Here is the transcription for my Monday Morning Movie

Gambling and InnovationThe other day I was at Mohegan Sun, which is a casino about an hour and a half outside of Boston. And while I’m there I love to speak with the gamblers because each of them believe they have a system. They believe they have a method to ensure that they win. And they’re all convinced they’ve won more money than they’ve lost.

Well, of course, this is not true. Casinos are not in the habit of giving money out to people. The house always wins. We know this to be true.

Why do people believe that they win more than they lose? It’s something called confirmation bias, and confirmation bias is the brain’s processing mechanism by which it finds evidence to support its belief structure. Whatever you believe, you will find evidence to support that, and you will subconsciously ignore anything that refutes your belief structure. That’s why we can have such powerful beliefs in spite of evidence to the contrary.

It’s very important for innovators to understand this concept, because every person is convinced they have a billion dollar idea. They’ve got the next big idea that’s going to change the world and make them rich. But what happens is their confirmation bias only allows them to see the evidence that supports their belief that they have a great idea. Their brain doesn’t allow them to see all the evidence that proves it’s actually a bad idea.

There’s a reason why 70 to 90 percent of new innovations fail. It’s not because these aren’t well intentioned, motivated, or excited people. But they’re people who, like all people, have confirmation bias. As a result they will subconsciously ignore the evidence that proves that what they think is a great idea, is in fact not such a good idea.

As innovators, as entrepreneurs, as individuals it’s important to recognize this. Now how do we counterbalance this?

It’s difficult for us to find evidence that refutes a strongly held belief. So what we need to do is, when we’re working on something, partner with a devil’s advocate. Find someone who’ll be the contrary point, somebody whose sole purpose is to find evidence that proves your idea is a bad idea.

Now it may be hard to hear what that person has to say. You will want to reject what they have to say. But if you can open up your mind and be willing to hear the contrary points of view, you may be able to refine your product, service, or idea, and come up with something that’s better. Or you may learn it’s just such a bad idea and you shouldn’t invest the time and money in this one. Find a different one.

This is really important for all organizations (big or small) and individuals.

We know that every gambler doesn’t win more than they lose. And we know that every idea is not a great idea.

The question is, “What are you going to do to make sure that you invest your time, money, and energy in the things that have the highest likelihood of paying off?”

Leave a Reply

Old Comments

2 Responses to “Every Idea Can’t Be a Good Idea (transcription)”

  1. If You Think You Aren’t Biased, Think Again | Business Innovation Speaker and Consultant Stephen Shapiro on April 12th, 2013 2:17 pm

    [...] week I had discussed the concept of confirmation bias and the impact that it has on [...]

  2. Pilots Are Not Experiments | Business Innovation Speaker and Consultant Stephen Shapiro on August 1st, 2013 11:36 am

    [...] your team is suffering from “confirmation bias;” you subconsciously look only for evidence that supports your [...]