How to Tell Fact From Fraud
We are constantly bombarded by information from advertisements, books, magazines, TV and the internet. But how much of this information is true? From my experience, little of it is accurate. People (often unknowingly) make claims that are exaggerated or blatant lies.
How can you separate the accurate from the invalid? One way is to understand the difference between causality, correlation, and coincidence. I alluded to these in previous entries and want to address them a bit more.
In a previous blog entry, I cited a study that claimed, “Individuals with greater wealth are happier.” Assuming that this statement is true, it is a correlation. Wealth and happiness are related. Some people may think this implies that “Money makes people happier.” This statement is a causality. It suggests that money is the cause of why people are happier. However, this is not true. According to the study, happier people make more money, yet more money does not make people happier. Money is correlated to happiness, but is not the cause of happiness.
In my blog entry, “Never Trust an Expert,” I discuss the concept of causality again. Many experts use anecdotal information to make causality statements. “I followed these 10 steps and got the following results.” However, without more data, this may just be a coincidence. If 100 people tried the same 10 steps and each got the same results, then you might be able to claim a correlation. Although there may be wisdom in anecdotal evidence, never accept it as the truth.
I am fascinated by the phenomenon known as “The Secret.” The book and video are based on the “Law of Attraction (LOA).” Simple stated, the LOA is the belief that positive thoughts attract positive results and negative thoughts attract negative things. This implies a causality: If you envision what you want, you will attract it. However, the LOA is really a correlation (and it may be just a coincidence). Visualization can help you get what you want, but it may not be the direct cause. The cause may be something else – like taking actions that are subconsciously aligned with your desires. The difference between causality and correlation is subtle, yet important. When stated as a causality, the LOA may lead you to believe that sitting in a corner and visualizing your success will manifest success.
There is a lot of dubious advice out there. Understanding the difference between causality, correlation, and coincidence can help you make more informed decisions. Just because tall people’s pants are longer than mine does not mean I should buy longer pants if I want to grow a few inches…